"...seems to appeal to a smaller number of people than was envisioned....."
Well, that's as short way of summarizing what I said in my post concluding that LSA and sport pilot has not and will not open the doors to flying to more pilots.
I also repeat the point that I am confident that by seriously closing down the door into ultralight flying (by eliminating the two-seat UL trainer and the existance of UL-instrutors (BFIs "Basic Flight Instructors) greatly increasing the difficulty for a newbie to get into UL flying -- it has actually in the short, medium, and definitally in the long run REDUCED the inflow of pilots.
Gary mentioned that the FAA may be creating a rule allowing existing private pilots to fly their already owned Cessnas, Pipers, etc without medical certificates (with limitations similar to sport pilots) WITHOUT going out and buying a true LSA.
As he implies a big part of the market for LSAs is from that crop of older private pilots wanting to fly without medicals.
My hanger mate is one such, and he was about to go out and buy an LSA and now is waiting to see if the FAA goes for that new sport-pilot-like rule that would allow him to continue to fly his existing faster aircraft.
As Gary implies if that goes through it will put a big crimp in the market for LSAs. As Lyle suggests because of that an other factors me _might_ see a drop in used LSA prices.
IMO don't expect to see a big drop in prices of the slicker newer ones. These are sophisticated aircraft being manufactured at current labor costs and the makers may go out of business but can't sell them much cheaper.
IMO it'll still be, for a long time, maybe indefintally, still be a situation where an FBO/flight-shcool will find it makes more sense to buy a used 152 as a trainer than any standard-LSA that can be used for sport pilot training.
Yeah, Sport pilot licensing still is cheaper and quicker than private pilot and that's still and appeal.
But you seem to forget what I mentioned that for many who WOULD otherwise go for sport pilot -
(a) they can't find anywhere to train without traveling 500 to 1000 miles from home for a chunk of time
AND
(b) when they get back home there's no LSA available to rent within 150 miles drive of home.
--- In Sport_Aircraft@yahoogroups.com, "Lyle Cox" <LyleCox@...> wrote:
>
> I don't think it makes any difference to the low cost pilot. Sport still definitely has its place among aviators. The real fact is the sport pilot is still about half the time it takes to become private. True enough, very few pilots can get their sport ticket in 20 hours, but very few pilots get
> their private in 40 hours. If you are the kind of pilot that needs more
> than 20 hours to be a sport pilot, you will likely also be the kind of pilot
> that needs more than 40 to be a private pilot.
>
> I think the sport aircraft market will take a hit. For example, people like
> myself, who would HAVE to look at buying the expensive new LSA in order to
> keep flying, won't have to do that anymore. I can continue flying my
> Cherokee. I can buy a LOT of fuel for the difference between a $20,000 1966
> Cherokee and a $130,000 2012 LSA. All in all, it will be a bloody bath for
> the manufacturers, but the consumers may just come out ahead. The demand
> for the high priced birds will not support the supply, and prices will come down.>
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